Brazil Corn Offers Low-Carbon Pathway for Sustainable Aviation Fuel

A new study published in Agricultural Economics indicates that Brazil's second-crop corn, known as safrinha, can provide a highly scalable, low-carbon feedstock for Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF). The research, conducted by Agroicone and international universities, highlights that using agricultural intensification rather than cropland expansion significantly reduces the lifecycle Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emissions associated with corn ethanol production.

The study's central finding is the dramatic reduction in land use. According to the research, Brazil's double-cropping system cuts estimated land-use change from about 40,000 hectares to roughly 7,000 hectares per billion liters of ethanol produced. This is critical for meeting the strict criteria of global frameworks like the Carbon Offsetting and Reduction Scheme for International Aviation (CORSIA), which heavily penalize biofuels with high Indirect Land-Use Change (ILUC) emissions.

The Brazilian Advantage: Agricultural Intensification

Brazil's rapid expansion in corn ethanol is driven by its ability to plant a second crop of corn on the same land after the primary soybean harvest, primarily in the country's Center-West region. This practice has already made a substantial impact. According to the Brazilian Energy Research Company (EPE), corn-based ethanol constituted roughly 20% of Brazil's total ethanol output in 2024. The EPE projects this figure will grow significantly, with corn ethanol production expected to reach between 13 and 15 billion liters by 2032.

This growth is supported by a burgeoning infrastructure, with 22 operational corn ethanol plants and 12 more currently under construction. The model contrasts sharply with single-crop systems, such as that in the United States, which face greater regulatory challenges in proving low ILUC values. The study authors emphasize that this double-cropping system fundamentally alters the emissions profile, giving Brazilian producers a strategic advantage.

Regulatory and Market Impact

The findings are particularly relevant as the aviation industry shifts towards the Alcohol-to-Jet (ATJ) pathway for SAF production. The ATJ process refines ethanol into jet fuel and is seen as a more scalable alternative to the dominant Hydroprocessed Esters and Fatty Acids (HEFA) pathway, which relies on supply-constrained feedstocks like used cooking oil and animal fats.

For Brazilian ethanol to be used in SAF for international flights, it must achieve certification under ICAO's CORSIA framework. The low-ILUC profile of safrinha corn makes this certification more attainable. This follows a successful precedent set in 2023-2024, when Brazilian sugarcane producers like Raízen obtained ISCC CORSIA Plus certification, paving the way for crop-based ethanol exports.

Domestically, Brazil's RenovaBio policy already incentivizes low-carbon fuel production through decarbonization credits. Globally, the eligibility for U.S. incentives like the 40B/45Z SAF tax credits, governed by the GREET model, will also be crucial for market access.

Stakeholder and Competitive Landscape

The potential shift has significant implications for multiple stakeholders. For Brazilian ethanol producers, it opens access to the premium-priced global SAF market. For airlines, it promises a more abundant and potentially cheaper feedstock to meet ambitious decarbonization targets.

However, it places U.S. corn ethanol producers under increased competitive pressure. The U.S. lobby group Growth Energy has voiced concerns that American tax policies should not favor foreign feedstocks over domestically produced ethanol. Meanwhile, environmental groups are monitoring the situation closely. Research from Iowa State University suggests that while double-cropping is efficient in established zones, it has driven up to 44% of recent cropland expansion in frontier areas near tropical forests, raising concerns that it could indirectly incentivize deforestation if not managed carefully.

What Comes Next

The aviation industry is approaching key regulatory deadlines that will accelerate the demand for certified low-carbon SAF. The mandatory phase of CORSIA is confirmed to commence in January 2027, requiring airlines on international routes to offset emissions growth. Concurrently, the Brazilian government is expected to implement its own SAF blending mandate through the "Fuel of the Future" bill, also anticipated around 2027.

As these mandates take effect, the demand for verifiable, low-carbon feedstocks will intensify. The ability of Brazilian second-crop corn ethanol to secure CORSIA certification will be a critical milestone in determining its role in the global SAF supply chain.

Why This Matters

This development provides a credible, large-scale pathway for producing SAF with a favorable carbon footprint. By leveraging an existing and highly efficient agricultural system, Brazil is positioned to become a dominant supplier in the global aviation biofuels market, offering airlines a vital tool to advance their decarbonization efforts beyond the limitations of waste-based feedstocks.

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