IATA Study: Engine MRO Bottlenecks Hinder Fleet Growth

The Growing MRO Capacity Gap

A new IATA engine study warns that aircraft MRO capacity for next-generation engines is failing to keep pace with global fleet expansion. These next-generation engine bottlenecks have triggered widespread operational disruptions and significant financial strain across the aviation sector. According to the International Air Transport Association (IATA) and Emerton, these systemic aviation supply chain failures resulted in an estimated $11 billion cost to the global airline industry in 2025 alone.

Operational Impact on Next-Gen Fleets

The crisis is most acute for operators of the Pratt & Whitney Geared Turbofan (GTF) and CFM International (CFM) Leading Edge Aviation Propulsion (LEAP) engines. The report identifies that grounded Pratt & Whitney GTF-powered aircraft peaked at 648 in March 2025, representing approximately 28% of the global GTF fleet. This reduction in available capacity has forced many airlines to extend leases on older, less fuel-efficient aircraft to maintain schedules. Data indicates the average commercial fleet age has now reached a record 15.2 years as a direct result of these maintenance delays.

Shop Visit Projections

The demand for service is expected to climb significantly over the next two decades. Annual shop visits for CFM LEAP engines are forecast to surge from a range of 600–800 in 2025 to over 5,000 by 2040. Simultaneously, annual shop visits for Pratt & Whitney GTF engines are expected to double from approximately 1,000 in 2025 to over 2,000 by 2040. These projections highlight the urgent need for expanded aftermarket infrastructure to prevent long-term fleet stagnation.

Technical Comparison: LEAP vs. GTF

Regulatory and Structural Challenges

IATA Director General Willie Walsh has called for systemic changes, including open access to spare parts and increased aftermarket competition. Currently, Original Equipment Manufacturers (OEMs) maintain tight control over the aftermarket MRO network. While OEMs argue that this control is essential to ensure flight safety, rigorous quality control, and the protection of intellectual property, IATA is urging the FAA (Federal Aviation Administration) and EASA (European Union Aviation Safety Agency) to accelerate the approval of alternative repair techniques and Parts Manufacturer Approval (PMA) components to reduce scrap rates.

Historical Precedents and Market Shifts

The current situation mirrors the 2017–2019 period, when Rolls-Royce Trent 1000 durability issues forced airlines to wet-lease replacement widebody aircraft while waiting for redesigned turbine blades and extended MRO shop visits. Today’s environment is further complicated by the fact that airlines are spending $1.4 billion on surplus inventory holding costs to mitigate unpredictable supply chain disruptions. This has created a high-stakes environment for aircraft lessors, who are seeing a 20–30% increase in lease rates as airlines scramble to secure backup assets.

What Comes Next for MRO Infrastructure

The industry is now focused on the transition toward 2040, when CFM LEAP and Pratt & Whitney GTF shop visit volumes are expected to reach their peak levels. Future stability will likely depend on the success of third-party MRO providers in capturing market share, provided that regulatory bodies facilitate broader access to repair data and parts. Airlines will continue to monitor engine time-on-wing performance as a primary indicator of whether current mitigation strategies are sufficient to stabilize their long-term fleet planning.

Why This Matters for Airline Economics

For airlines operating A320neo and 737 MAX fleets, these bottlenecks represent a major threat to profitability and operational reliability. The inability to service engines efficiently directly impacts the bottom line through increased fuel burn, the cost of hoarding spare parts, and the loss of revenue from grounded aircraft. As the industry moves forward, the ability to secure reliable MRO capacity will become a critical competitive differentiator for carriers globally.