Ryanair CEO Warns of 10% Summer Cancellations, Cites Fuel and ATC Strikes

Ryanair CEO Michael O'Leary has warned that a severe jet fuel crisis could force the cancellation of 5-10% of flights across Europe this summer, though he maintains that strikes by French air traffic controllers pose a more significant threat to travel stability. The warning comes as the ongoing closure of the Strait of Hormuz chokes global energy supplies and drives aviation fuel costs to unprecedented levels.

In an interview, O'Leary described the situation as an "unknown scenario," urging travelers to book summer trips immediately before airfares increase further. He cautioned that if the geopolitical crisis persists, airlines will have little advance notice on which flights to ground, as cancellations will depend on daily fuel availability at individual airports. Despite the risk, he argued that with 90-95% of flights still expected to operate, booking now is less of a gamble than waiting and facing significantly higher prices.

The surge in jet fuel prices is a direct result of the Strait of Hormuz closure, which has disrupted nearly one-fifth of the world’s oil supply, according to the US Energy Information Administration. The impact is being felt globally, with top U.S. hubs seeing the average price for jet fuel hit $4.88 per gallon, nearly double its pre-crisis level, based on data from Airlines for America (A4A). This has prompted carriers to raise ancillary fees for checked luggage to offset the cost pressure.

Industry-Wide Pressure

The financial strain is forcing major carriers to make difficult contingency plans. In a recent staff memo, United Airlines confirmed it is bracing for a prolonged conflict that could send oil prices as high as $175 a barrel, a scenario that would necessitate capacity reductions. The airline is already trimming its schedules by approximately 3% on off-peak routes to mitigate the severe fuel expenses.

For passengers, the situation is complicated by air carrier liability rules. O'Leary acknowledged that travelers on canceled flights would not be eligible for financial compensation, as airlines can claim the fuel shortage constitutes extraordinary circumstances beyond their control. Under European Regulation 261/2004 (EC 261), which governs passenger rights, airlines are still obligated to reroute passengers or get them home, but the exemption from further compensation also applies to disruptions caused by Air Traffic Control (ATC) strikes.

Context: A Tale of Two Crises

The current market volatility echoes previous geopolitical shocks. In February 2022, the Russian invasion of Ukraine caused Brent crude to spike above $130 per barrel, leading to widespread fare hikes and fuel surcharges. That event demonstrated how quickly geopolitical conflicts can inflate airline operating costs. However, the current situation for European carriers is compounded by a recurring internal issue: French ATC strikes.

The summer of 2023 saw thousands of flight cancellations due to walkouts organized by French ATC unions like the Syndicat National des Contrôleurs du Trafic Aérien (SNCTA). O'Leary emphasized this history, suggesting that travelers should be more concerned about ATC disruptions than fuel-related cancellations. This recurring labor issue has a disproportionate impact on European travel, as many flights that do not land in France must still cross its airspace.

Technical Analysis

The convergence of a severe external energy shock with a chronic internal labor dispute creates a uniquely volatile operating environment for European airlines. The industry is responding with a two-pronged strategy: protecting revenue through increased ancillary fees and managing costs through conservative capacity planning. This development accelerates a trend where airlines de-risk their financial models by unbundling services and shifting pricing pressure away from base fares. Historically, airlines have weathered fuel spikes, but the simultaneous threat of unpredictable, widespread airspace closures from ATC strikes prevents carriers from developing stable contingency plans. The data suggests the industry is entering a period where operational reliability, not just cost, will be the primary challenge.

What Comes Next

The industry is bracing for a critical stress test during the peak summer travel season from May to July 2026. This period will reveal the true extent of fuel supply chain vulnerabilities under maximum demand. Concurrently, further weekend walkouts by French ATC unions are expected in May and June, potentially creating a perfect storm of disruption for European leisure travelers. Airlines will be forced to manage fluid, day-to-day operational decisions based on fuel availability and ATC staffing levels.

Why This Matters

This dual crisis signals a period of significant uncertainty and higher costs for European travel. For passengers, it means navigating the risk of cancellations alongside escalating fares. For airlines, it represents a critical test of operational resilience and financial planning in the face of extreme cost volatility and unpredictable airspace management.

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