Air India Crash: AAIB Sets October Deadline for Final Report

AAIB Timeline for Ahmedabad Crash Inquiry

The Aircraft Accident Investigation Bureau (AAIB) informed the Supreme Court (SC) of India on Tuesday that the complex investigation into the Air India flight that crashed in Ahmedabad is entering its final stages. The incident, which resulted in 260 total fatalities—including 241 passengers and 19 individuals on the ground—remains under intense scrutiny. In response to a petition filed by the deceased pilot's father, Pushkar Raj Sabharwal, the AAIB stated that active investigation activities are expected to conclude within six weeks. The bureau projects that the draft final report will be ready by October 2026.

Regulatory Requirements and International Coordination

This investigation involves significant international coordination, necessitating adherence to International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) standards. Under ICAO Annex 13, the investigating state must share its draft findings with the State of Design and Manufacture—in this case, the United States National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB)—to allow for substantiated technical comments. According to the AAIB, this collaborative process is essential for ensuring the accuracy and integrity of the final safety recommendations. Once these international agencies provide feedback, the AAIB will conduct further deliberations before the Director General of the AAIB publishes the final document.

Comparative Investigation Timelines

To address concerns regarding the pace of the inquiry, the AAIB cited global precedents to demonstrate that complex aviation accidents often require multi-year investigative windows. The bureau noted that the NTSB's investigation into the January 29, 2025, Potomac River midair collision took exactly one year to reach its final report. Furthermore, the investigation into Ethiopian Airlines Flight 302, which crashed in March 2019, did not conclude until December 2022. The AAIB also highlighted that investigations into Japan Airlines Flight 516 and Jeju Air Flight 2216 remain ongoing, underscoring the commonality of protracted timelines for modern aviation disasters.

Alternative Perspectives on the Investigation

Not all stakeholders are satisfied with the current administrative process. The petitioner, Pushkar Raj Sabharwal, alongside representatives from the Federation of Indian Pilots, has argued that the AAIB's investigation lacks sufficient independence. These groups have suggested that the current bureau risks prematurely attributing the crash to flight crew error and have advocated for a court-monitored judicial inquiry to ensure a more transparent outcome.

The Complexity of the AI-171 Investigation

The AAIB’s upcoming October deadline reflects the immense technical challenge of reconstructing the final moments of the flight. The bureau must synthesize flight data, cockpit voice recordings, and wreckage analysis from multiple international jurisdictions. Historically, investigations involving the NTSB as the State of Design have been characterized by rigorous, often adversarial, technical reviews that ensure safety improvements are grounded in verifiable data. This development signals that the aviation industry remains in a cycle of increasingly complex, data-heavy accident investigations that necessitate longer regulatory windows to prevent future systemic failures.

Next Steps for the Final Report

The AAIB anticipates that all active investigative field work will be finalized by late August 2026. Following this, the bureau will shift its focus to the analysis phase, leading to the preparation of the draft report. Once the draft is shared with the NTSB and other relevant international bodies, the bureau will move toward the final publication phase in the fourth quarter of 2026. This timeline remains subject to the resolution of pending external dependencies and the timely receipt of comments from foreign safety agencies.

Why This Matters for Aviation Safety

For the families of the victims, this timeline extends the period of uncertainty regarding the cause of the disaster, which in turn delays legal closure. For the broader industry, the thoroughness of the AAIB report is critical, as it will likely determine future maintenance protocols and potential design modifications for the aircraft variant involved. The investigation serves as a reminder that safety oversight requires a balance between the public's demand for rapid answers and the necessity of a meticulous, evidence-based process that meets international safety standards.