European Airlines Likely Surpassed 2% SAF Mandate in 2025

Europe's aviation sector is on track to have surpassed its first major Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) target, with preliminary indications showing usage exceeded the 2% blending mandate for 2025. This achievement marks a significant step-up from the 0.6% SAF uptake recorded across the bloc in 2024 and represents a critical early test of the ambitious ReFuelEU Aviation regulation.

The apparent success in meeting the initial mandate demonstrates the industry's ability to respond to regulatory pressure. However, it also brings underlying challenges into sharp focus, including the high cost of SAF, a heavy reliance on imported feedstocks, and growing industry opposition to more stringent future requirements, particularly for synthetic fuels.

2024 Baseline and 2025 Projections

Official data for 2025 will be released by the European Union Aviation Safety Agency (EASA) later in 2026, but the agency's head has expressed confidence in the industry's performance. Florian Guillermet, Executive Director of EASA, confirmed the positive outlook, stating, "We believe we will be at or even above the 2% in 2025."

This performance builds on the baseline established in 2024. According to EASA's ReFuelEU Aviation Annual Technical Report for 2024, a total of 193 kilotonnes of SAF were supplied at European Union airports. This volume resulted in the avoidance of approximately 714 kilotonnes of CO2 emissions. The report also highlighted the significant cost premium associated with green fuels. In 2024, the average price of SAF in the EU was €2,085 per tonne, nearly triple the €734 per tonne average cost of conventional jet fuel. This price disparity remains a primary concern for airlines, especially in light of recent volatility in global oil markets that saw conventional jet fuel prices surge in early 2026.

Feedstock Dependency and Future Mandates

A critical detail from the 2024 data is the industry's reliance on a narrow and geographically concentrated feedstock source. 81% of the SAF supplied in the EU was derived from used cooking oil. Furthermore, 69% of the total feedstock originated from outside the EU, with major sources including China and Malaysia. This dependency raises long-term questions about the scalability and sustainability of the supply chain as mandates increase.

The ReFuelEU regulation, a core component of the EU's 'Fit for 55' climate package, sets a clear and escalating trajectory for decarbonization. The mandate will increase to 6% by 2030 and progressively to 70% by 2050. The 2030 target includes a particularly challenging 1.2% sub-mandate for synthetic sustainable aviation fuel (eSAF), also known as e-kerosene. This has prompted pushback from industry groups like Airlines for Europe (A4E), which represents major carriers including Ryanair, Lufthansa, and IAG. A4E has lobbied to delay or remove the eSAF requirement, citing high costs and a lack of production capacity. However, regulators are holding firm. "The mandate is a mandate, so it is in place," Guillermet commented. "Personally, I don't see any reason why it should change."

SAF vs Conventional Jet Fuel (2024 EU Averages)

Technical Analysis

This development indicates that while the European aviation industry can meet initial, low-percentage SAF mandates, the success relies heavily on the existing global market for hydroprocessed esters and fatty acids (HEFA) fuels, primarily from used cooking oil. This approach is not scalable to meet the mid-term 2030 and 2035 targets, which will require significant contributions from other fuel pathways, including synthetic fuels. The current situation mirrors the EU's implementation of the Emissions Trading System (ETS) for aviation in 2012, which also faced intense industry opposition before becoming an established part of the regulatory landscape. The EU's firm stance on the 2030 eSAF mandate suggests it is willing to force technological development through regulation, creating a guaranteed market to stimulate investment in a nascent sector. The key conflict ahead is not about the 2% target, but about whether the eSAF production industry can scale fast enough to make the 1.2% sub-mandate achievable without imposing prohibitive costs on air travel.

What Comes Next

The immediate milestone is the publication of EASA's official ReFuelEU Aviation Annual Technical Report for the 2025 compliance year. According to EASA, this is confirmed for release in the September-October 2026 timeframe. Looking further ahead, the industry is preparing for the next major regulatory increase on January 1, 2030, when the SAF blending mandate is confirmed to rise to 6%, which will include the 1.2% eSAF sub-target.

Why This Matters

Meeting the first ReFuelEU mandate is a significant proof-of-concept for Europe's regulatory-driven approach to aviation decarbonization. It signals to fuel producers, airlines, and investors that the mandates are firm and compliance is expected. However, the underlying data on cost and feedstock dependency highlights the immense industrial and economic challenges that must be overcome to meet the more aggressive targets set for the coming decade.

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